Wednesday, February 9, 2011

China's central bank interest rate tightening cycle of monetary policy into the

 The intensity of the current round of interest rate
choice is still 0.25 percentage points, magnitude is not large, but the timing was very decisive, indicating that the central bank anti-inflation this year was emboldened enough by this interest rate, has announced that China's tight monetary policy and interest rates will go into the cycle.

the People's Bank of China on February 8 announced late: Since February 9, 2011 from financial institutions raised the benchmark deposit and lending interest rates, financial institutions, one-year deposit and lending rates by 0.25 percentage points, respectively.

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China's third increase since the the timing of interesting information, select the last day of the Lunar New Year holidays, urgent and decisive. Clearly, the central bank on the future price movements and credit growth maintained a sufficient vigilance.

Looking January since the macroeconomic situation, the price trend is still not optimistic: First, although January's CPI has not been announced, but considering the Spring Festival and other seasonal factors and the impact of hikes, CPI Since the financial crisis is likely to create a new high;

Second, since this winter, the North China and the Huang-Huai to encounter a rare drought in decades, global food price index rose for 7 months of this year January global food price index reached 231 points, a record high;

Third, China's real estate regulation entered a critical moment, but long-term negative interest rates to curb housing prices rose too fast for the extremely unfavorable, and asset price bubble will become the most macro-economic instability;

Fourth, although the Central Economic Work Conference last year, has already established a sound monetary policy, a big return policy, but in January of credit growth to Look, the possibility of a breakthrough trillion is very large, the control of credit growth this year, the task is still severe.

In this case, the central bank to raise interest rates decisively, on the one hand the situation shows the importance of future prices, on the other hand, by choosing to raise interest rates, revealing the Year of the Rabbit to the outside world will remain the central bank credit controls and prices in a more prominent position.

after this rate hike, the central bank's monetary policy intentions the fundamental unity: first, after this rate hike, one-year benchmark deposit rate back to 3% before the financial crisis, which means that the central bank to return this year of 3% CPI growth is not optimistic; Secondly, after the current round of interest rate, the 5-year deposit interest rate to 5%, negative interest rate situation has changed significantly, and this has been the concept of inflation has a strong prices, no doubt, good inhibition; the third round of the intensity of choice is still raising interest rates is 0.25 percentage point increase is not large, but the timing was very decisive, indicating that the central bank anti-inflation this year, was emboldened enough to Through this interest rate, has announced that China's tight monetary policy and interest rates will go into the cycle.

course, this year the central bank is still the choice of the policy dilemma faced by many in China to enter the interest rate cycle, driven by hot money for the asset prices and imported inflation has a role in fueling; the same time, taking into account Shortly after the financial crisis, China is still a lot of small and medium recovery of the foundation is not solid, if excessive contraction of credit, the first victims will be agriculture and SMEs.

central in the fight against price hikes, monetary tightening, we should pay more attention to the allocation of credit resources and put in the field, to ensure that credit flow to SMEs and the situation is not optimistic about the agricultural sector. Meanwhile, the choice of the policy should pay attention to use of various monetary policy tools, but for now, interest rates are still the most effective option.

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